Bernhard Puell

Forecasts on the Future Demand and Supply of Teachers

The Methodology of the Bavarian Teacher Demand Forecast


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It normally takes trainee teachers at least six years of university studies and practical qualification until they are ready to start working as a teacher. In order to determine the future demand for teachers and give high school graduates the best possible advice on their study and career choices, it is necessary to anticipate future developments with the aid of projections. The Bavarian State Ministry of Education provides a periodically updated projection on the expected demand and supply of teachers. The article examines the underlying principles of the model calculation based on the main factors affecting teacher demand and supply and how they correlate with each other.

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